Keen on the trail: Evaluating leads Bay Area Reporte

Gay news from the presidential campaign trail ...

To watch or read most national discussions of the presidential horse race on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is so many lengths ahead of the rest of her field, nobody can possibly catch her. But it's worth keeping in mind that, in December 2003, some polls showed Howard Dean with a 32-point lead in New Hampshire over the eventual nominee John Kerry. With that in mind the latest national poll of Democrats, conducted by Associated Press November 5-7, shows 45 percent support Clinton, 22 percent for Barack Obama, 12 percent for John Edwards, and low single digits for everybody else. The random phone survey was of 474 registered voters (Democrats and those leaning Democratic) nationwide and conducted by AP and Ipsos Public Affairs. The margin or error was plus or minus 4 points.

Typically, the hype over who wins the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary has always contributed to field conditions, too. Polls in those states show a closer race: Clinton leads Obama by only 2 points in Iowa, with Edwards just 7 points behind Obama. This poll by Strategic Vision surveyed 600 likely Democratic voters between November 9-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

In New Hampshire, Clinton has a 14-point edge, based on a Boston Globe random phone survey of 400 likely Democratic voters taken between November 2-7. The margin or error is plus or minus 4.9 points.

Keen on the trail: Evaluating leads Bay Area Reporter